기술가치평가를 이용한 국방핵심기술 R&D 투자 우선순위 결정 프레임워크

이정석¹ ; 임춘성²^{, *}

1해군 중령/연세대학교 기술정책협동과정 박사과정
2연세대학교 산업공학과 교수

A Framework for Prioritizing Defense Core Technology R&D Investment Using Technology Valuation

Jeongseok Lee¹ ; ChoonSeong Leem²^{, *}

1CDR, ROK Navy/Ph.D program, Graduate Program in Technology Policy, Yonsei University
2Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University

Correspondence to: *ChoonSeong Leem Tel: +82-2-2123-4011 E-mail: leem@yonsei.ac.kr

초록

본 연구는 국방 R&D의 성과가 무기체계에 적용되지 못하는 문제를 개선하기 위해 R&D 기획 단계에서 기술가치평가를 통한 경제성 예측 모델을 제안한다. 국방 R&D의 특수성과 단계별 불확실성을 반영하기 위해 이항옵션 모형에 수익접근법을 결합한 3단계 평가 프레임워크를 설계하고, 주가수익률에 기반한 변동성과 무기체계 적용률을 핵심 모수로 활용하여 국방핵심기술 R&D 과제에 실증 적용하였다. 본 연구는 기획 단계에서 실물옵션 기반 평가 프레임워크를 제시함으로써 국방 R&D 예산 배분 효율화를 위한 정책적 의사결정 도구로서의 유효성을 확인하였다.

Abstract

This study proposes a technology-valuation-based economic feasibility model for the R&D planning stage to improve the low weapon system application rate of defense R&D outcomes. A three-stage real option framework integrating a binomial option pricing model with an income approach was designed and empirically applied to defense core technology R&D projects. The stock-return-based volatility and weapon system application rate were used as key parameters. The results confirm the validity of the framework as a proactive policy decision-support tool for optimizing defense R&D budget allocation.

Keywords:

Defense Core Technology, Technology Valuation, Binomial Option Pricing Model, Real Option Model, Income Approach

키워드:

국방핵심기술, 기술가치평가, 이항옵션 모델, 실물옵션법, 수익접근법

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