PI-DeepONet 궤적예측 및 피해평가 기반 무장할당

이혁주¹ ; 장재덕² ; 경지훈³ ; 최봉완³^{, *}

1한남대학교 산업공학과 연구원
2LIG D&A 미래전장연구개발 본부 M&S팀장
3한남대학교 산업공학과 교수

Threat Evaluation and Weapon Assignment Based on PI-DeepONet Trajectory Prediction

Hyuk Joo Lee¹ ; Jae Deok Jang² ; Ji Hoon Kyung³ ; Bong Wan Choi³^{, *}

1Researcher, Dept. of Industrial & Management Engineering, Hannam University
2Head of M&S Team, R&D(Future World), LIG D&A
3Professor, Dept. of Industrial & Management Engineering, Hannam University

Correspondence to: *Bong Wan Choi 70 Hannam-ro, Daedeok-gu, Daejeon, 34430, Republic of Korea Tel: +82-42-629-7989, +82-42-629-8530 Fax: +82-42-629-8533 E-mail: bwchoi721@hnu.kr

초록

본 연구는 PI-DeepONet을 활용한 궤적예측 및 요격 실패 시 피해율을 위협값으로 사용하고, 요격무기체계 대응시간을 반영한 예측요격점(PIP) 기반 교전 가능성을 고려하여, 피해율 최소화 정수계획법을 적용한 위협평가 및 무장할당(TEWA) 방법론을 제안한다. 탄도미사일 60발과 5개 요격체계 시뮬레이션 결과 육해상 통합 방어율이 61.7%로 가장 높았고, 육상 단독은 외기권 요격 수단 부재로 17.9%에 그쳤다.

Abstract

This study proposes an integer-programming-based threat evaluation and weapon assignment methodology that uses the damage rate upon interception failure, derived from PI-DeepONet trajectory prediction, as the threat value. It also introduces a predicted intercept point reflecting reaction time and interceptor flight time as an engagement feasibility constraint. In simulations featuring 60 ballistic missiles against 5 interceptor systems, the integrated land-sea configuration achieves the highest defense rate of 61.7%, while the land-only configuration reaches 17.9% due to the absence of exo-atmospheric interception.

Keywords:

Threat Evaluation, PI-DeepONet, Trajectory Prediction, Damage Rate, Weapon Assignment, Multi-Layered Defense, Ballistic Missile Defense

키워드:

위협평가, 물리정보 심층 연산자 네트워크, 궤적예측, 피해율, 무장할당, 다층 방어, 탄도미사일 방어

Acknowledgments

이 연구는 방위사업청 재원으로 LIGD&A의 지원을 받아 한남대학교에서 수행된 결과임(LIGNEX1-2025-2315(00) 참조번호-YD25-5316)

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