전훈분석: 탄도 모델을 이용한 조선 신기전의 전투 효과 분석

조성진¹ ; 정세윤²^{, *}

1한국방송통신대학교 프라임칼리지 첨단공학부 전임대우강의교수
2한국방송통신대학교 프라임칼리지 첨단공학부 부교수

Lessons Learned: An Analysis of the Combat Effectiveness of the Joseon Singijeon Using a Ballistic Model

Sung-Jin Cho¹ ; Se-Youn Jung²^{, *}

1Full-time teaching professor, Division of Advanced Engineering, Prime College, Korea National Open University
2Associate professor, Division of Advanced Engineering, Prime College, Korea National Open University

Correspondence to: *Se-Youn Jung Division of Advanced Engineering, Prime College, Korea National Open University, 86 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 03087, Republic of Korea Tel: +82-2-3668-4448 E-mail: jseyoun@knou.ac.kr

초록

조선시대 신기전은 화차에 장착되어 다수의 발사체를 동시에 발사할 수 있는 선구적인 무기 체계이나, 현재까지 그 전투 효과는 정성적으로만 이해되어 왔다. 본 논문에서는 신기전의 전투 효과를 공학적으로 분석하기 위해 탄도 모델을 이용하여 탄도 특성, 폭발 위치, 탄착분포(CEP)를 분석하였다. 기존의 전훈분석이 전략‧전술 중심의 정성적 서술에 편중되었던 한계를 넘어, 본 연구는 역사적 무기 체계의 전투 효과를 공학적 방법론을 통해 정량적으로 분석할 수 있음을 제시하였다는 데 의의가 있다.

Abstract

During the Joseon Dynasty, the Singijeon was a pioneering weapon system mounted on the Hwacha. It was capable of launching multiple projectiles simultaneously; however, its combat effectiveness has only been studied qualitatively. This study analyzed the combat effectiveness of the Singijeon using an engineering approach with a ballistic model that evaluated its ballistic characteristics, explosion locations, and circular error probable. This study goes beyond the limitations of conventional lessons learned analyses, which have largely focused on qualitative descriptions centered on strategy and tactics. It is significant for demonstrating that the combat effectiveness of historical weapon systems can be quantitatively analyzed using an engineering-based methodology.

Keywords:

Singijeon, Ballistic Model, Combat Effectiveness, Lessons Learned, Military OR

키워드:

신기전, 탄도 모델, 전투 효과, 전훈분석, 군사 운영 분석

Acknowledgments

이 논문은 2023년도 한국방송통신대학교 학술연구비 지원을 받아 작성된 것임.

References

조선시대 법령자료, 국조오례의서례(國朝五禮儀序例), 권4, 군례(軍禮), 병기도설(兵器圖說), 화차(火車), 국사편찬위원회, 2021.06.18. https://db.history.go.kr/joseon/item/level.do?levelId=jlawb_230_0040_0010_0020_0380, (accessed 2026.05.06.)
Sung Jin Cho, Jae Hyo Jeon, Sung Min Jung, & Yoon Chul Cho, ‘Lessons Learned: A Simulation Analysis on Rommel’s Logistics Problem in WW-II North-African Campaign,’ Journal of the Military Operations Research Society of Korea, VOL. 44, NO. 2, 2018, pp. 1-10.
채연석, 되살아난 조선의 로켓 화기, 신기전과 화차, 집현전네트워크 홈페이지, 2023.09.19. https://jiphyunnet.or.kr/app/service/jiphyun/archive/592?doc_cat=sub4_6, (accessed 2026.05.27.)
한국민족문화대백과사전, 신기전, 한국학중앙연구원 홈페이지, 2026.05.11. https://encykorea.aks.ac.kr/Article/E0032719, (accessed 2026.05.13.)
Yong Soo Kwon & Bong Suk Choi, ‘Analysis of the Flight Trajectory Characteristics of Ballistic Missiles,’ Journal of the Military Operations Research Society of Korea, VOL. 32, NO. 1, 2006, pp. 176-187.
Sung-Jin Cho, ‘A Study on the Estimating Launch Location Based on Detection Information of Ballistic Missile Flight,’ Journal of the KNST, VOL. 6, NO. 3, 2023, pp. 331-335. [https://doi.org/10.31818/JKNST.2023.09.6.3.331]
Sung-Jin Cho, ‘A Study on a Simple Analysis Method for Rapidly Estimating the Trajectory of a Ballistic Missile,’ Journal of the Military Operations Research Society of Korea, VOL. 49, NO. 3, 2023, pp. 1-11.
Hae-Ill Bak & Yu-Chan Yi, ‘Estimation of Trajectories for the Large General-Arrow Fired from the Early Korean Gun-Barrel “CH’ON-JA-CH’ONG-T’ONG” and the Effective Gun Range from the Turtle-Boat,’ Korean Journal for the History of Science, VOL. 11, NO. 1, 1989, pp. 3-18.
Yongwu Lee, Minjae Kim, Seungwon Wang, Jaiho Kim, & Hwanil Huh, ‘The First Korean Rocket Dae-Sin-Gi-Jeon: Study of Propellant Case (Yak-Tong),’ in Proceedings of 2008 KSPE Fall Conference, November 2008, pp. 211-214.
Yongwu Lee & Hwanil Huh, ‘The 15th Century Korean Rocket Dae-Sin-Gi-Jeon: Flight Test Result,’ in Proceedings of 2009 KSPE Fall Conference, November 2009, pp. 325-328.
채연석, 이동식 로켓발사대, 문종화차(文宗火車), 사이언스올 홈페이지, 2014.12.22. https://www.scienceall.com/brd/board/749/L/menu/748?brdType=R&thisPage=1&bbsSn=95385&brdCodeValue=, (accessed 2026.05.06.)