기후변화로 인한 해수면 상승이 해안도시의 해군 부대시설에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

정우송¹ ; 이재준² ; 편용범¹^{, *}

1해군소령/성균관대학교 일반대학원 방재안전공학협동과정 석사과정
2성균관대학교 일반대학원 방재안전공학협동과정 박사후연구원

A Study on the Impact of Rising Sea Levels Due to Climate Change on Naval Facilities in Coastal Cities

Woo Song Jeong¹ ; Jae Jun Lee² ; Yong Beom Pyeon¹^{, *}

1LCDR, ROK Navy/Interdisciplinary Program in Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management, Sungkyunkwan University
2Post Doctor, Interdisciplinary Program in Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management, Sungkyunkwan University

Correspondence to: ^*Yong Beom Pyeon Interdisciplinary Program in Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management, Sungkyunkwan University, 16419, 2066 Seobu-ro, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do, Reublic of Korea E-mail: koreasoccer02@naver.com

초록

이 연구는 IPCC 5차 보고서를 근거로 하여 한반도 특성에 맞게 분석한 「한국 기후변화 평가보고서 2020」의 RCP8.5, 극한시나리오 상 평균해수면 상승값을 Global Mapper 시뮬레이션 프로그램에 적용하여 기후변화로 인한 해수면 상승이 해군 주요 부대시설 7개소(인천, 평택, 목포, 제주, 진해, 부산, 동해 등 해안도시 소재)에 미칠 결과를 도출하였다. 그 결과, RCP8.5 시나리오 적용 시에는 해군 주요 부대시설 7개소 중 2개(목포, 제주) 부대시설은 운영이 불가하며, 2개(진해, 동해) 부대시설은 일부 잠기는 것으로 결과가 도출되었으며, 극한시나리오 적용 시에는 3개(인천, 목포, 제주) 부대시설은 운영이 불가하며, 2개(진해, 동해) 부대시설은 일부 잠기는 결과가 도출되었다.

Abstract

This study derived the impacts of sea level rises due to climate change on 7 major naval unit facilities (located at coastal cities including Incheon, Pyeongtaek, Mokpo, Jeju, Jinhae, Busan, and Donghae) by applying the average sea level rise value in the extreme scenario and RCP8.5, presented in the Korea Climate Change Evaluation Report 2020, which analyzed according to the characteristics of the Korean Peninsula based on the IPCC 5th report. As a result, it was found that 2 (Mokpo, Jeju) out of 7 major naval units lost their operational feasibility and 2 (Jinhae, Donghae) were partially locked when applying the RCP 8.5 scenario. In the extreme scenario, even Incheon unit additionally also became nonoperational.

Keywords:

Climate Change, RCP Scenario, Rising Sea Levels, Impact Assessment of Naval Facilities

키워드:

기후변화, RCP 시나리오, 해수면 상승, 해군 부대시설 영향평가

Acknowledgments

이 논문은 2022년도 한국해군과학기술학회 하계학술대회 발표 논문임.

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