M&S 기반 교전급 수준의 탄도탄 탄착 지점 예측에 관한 연구

박명훈¹^{, *} ; 고진용² ; 김정² ; 이성균² ; 장재덕²

1LIG넥스원 해양연구소 선임연구원
2LIG넥스원 해양연구소 수석연구원

A Study on Engagement-level Impact Point Prediction of Ballistic Missiles Based on Modeling and Simulation

Myunghoon Park¹^{, *} ; Jinyong Go² ; Jeong Kim² ; Sungkyun Lee² ; Jaedeok Jang²

1Research engineer, Maritime R&D Center, LIG Nex1
2Chief research engineer, Maritime R&D Center, LIG Nex1

Correspondence to: *Myunghoon Park Maritime R&D Center, LIG Nex1 333 Pangyo-ro, Bundang-gu, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, 13488, Republic of Korea Tel: +82-31-5179-7267 Fax: +82-31-5179-7086 E-mail: myunghoon.park2@lignex1.com

초록

본 논문에서는 교전급 수준에서 탄도탄의 탄착 지점을 예측하기 위한 M&S기반 접근법을 제안한다. 제안된 모델은 레이다 탐지정보를 입력으로 하여, 신호 세기에 따른 탐지 오차를 반영하고, 확장 칼만 필터(EKF)를 이용해 탄도탄의 상태를 추정한 뒤, 운동 방정식을 통해 궤적을 예측한다. 또한, 질량, 항력계수 및 단면적의 불확실성을 반영하기 위해 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 수행함으로써 탄착 지점의 분포를 분석하였다. 제안된 M&S 프레임은 단순한 구성으로도 레이다 성능, 추적 정확도, 예측 오차 등을 일관성 있게 분석할 수 있으며, 사전 운용 검증 및 실시간 위협 평가 등 다양한 교전 상황에서 활용 가능하다.

Abstract

This paper proposes an engagement-level modeling and simulation (M&S) framework for predicting the impact point of ballistic missiles. The proposed approach utilizes radar detection data as input, incorporates signal-dependent measurement errors, and employs an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate the target states. The predicted states are then propagated through the physical equations of motion, and a Monte Carlo analysis is conducted to evaluate the dispersion of the impact point under uncertainties in mass, drag coefficient, and cross-sectional area. Unlike engineering-level models that require complex algorithms or high-fidelity estimation, the proposed framework focuses on simplicity and physical consistency suitable for engagement-level analysis. The results demonstrate that this minimal yet complete M&S model can effectively simulate and assess the influence of radar performance and EKF tracking accuracy, providing practical support for pre-engagement analysis and real-time operational assessment.

Keywords:

Impact Point Prediction, Engagement-level M&S, Ballistic Missile M&S, Radar M&S, Modeling and Simulation

키워드:

탄착 지점 예측, 교전급 M&S, 탄도탄 M&S, 레이다 M&S, 모델링 및 시뮬레이션

References

S. Bhowmik and C. Roy, “Application of Extended Kalman Filter to Tactical Ballistic Missile Re-entry Problem,” arXiv preprint arXiv:0707.1918, , Jul. 2007. [https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.0707.1918]
A. Benavoli, L. Chisci, and A. Farina, “Tracking of a Ballistic Missile with a-Priori Information,” in Proc. 14th Int. Conf. on Information Fusion (FUSION), Chicago, IL, USA, Jul. 2011, pp. 1–8. [https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIF.2011.5977610]
B. Yang, Y. Li, and H. Zhang, “Ballistic Fitting Impact Point Prediction Based on Improved Crayfish Optimization Algorithm,” Aerospace, Vol. 11, No. 11, p. 908, Nov. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace11110908]
S. R. Bhatia, A. Singh, and R. Kumar, “Trajectory Estimation for Ballistic Missile in Free-flight Phase Using Extended Kalman Filter based on Radar Measurements,” Proc. Int. Conf. on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications (ISDA), Mysuru, India, Dec. 2022, pp. 483–490. [https://doi.org/10.1109/ISDA55803.2022.10058973]
E. L. Fleeman, Missile Design and System Engineering, Reston, VA, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2012.
M. I. Skolnik, Radar Handbook, 3rd ed. New York, NY, McGraw-Hill, 2008.
D. Simon, Optimal State Estimation: Kalman, H infinity, and Nonlinear Approaches, Hoboken, NJ, USA: Wiley, 2006.