‘해일’ 위협 분석을 위한 통합 경험식 제안: Baker 모델의 한반도 천해(淺海) 환경 적용

신명식¹ ; 박정미² ; 이여진² ; 이성민² ; 강구³^{, *}

1국군화생방방호사령부 화생방방어연구소 방사능분석과 방사능분석선임연구장교(대위)
2국군화생방방호사령부 화생방방어연구소 방사능분석과 방사능연구담당
3국군화생방방호사령부 화생방방어연구소 방사능분석과장(중령(진))

Proposal of an Integrated Empirical Equation for ‘Haeil’ Threat Analysis: Applying the Baker Model to Korean Shallow Water Environments

Myeongsik Shin¹ ; Jungmi Park² ; Yejin Lee² ; Sungmin Lee² ; Ku Kang³^{, *}

1CAPT/Senior research officer(radiological analyzer), Radiological Analysis Division, CBRN Defense Research Institute, ROK Ministry of Defense
2Research officer(radiological analyzer), Radiological Analysis Division, CBRN Defense Research Institute, ROK Ministry of Defense
3LTC(Sel.)/Head of Radiological Analysis Division, CBRN Defense Research Institute, ROK Ministry of Defense

Correspondence to: *Ku Kang E-mail: bisu9082@gmail.com

초록

본 연구는 북한의 핵추진 무인수중운동체 ‘해일’의 수중 폭발 위협을 한반도 천해(淺海) 환경에 맞게 분석하였다. 기존 Baker 기반 심해 모델은 ‘천해 효과(shoaling effect)’가 누락되어 위협을 과소평가하는 한계가 있었다. 이에 ‘천해 수심(h)’과 ‘지형(Γ)’ 변수를 포함한 고도화된 통합 경험식을 제안하였다. 제안 모델은 Wahoo, Umbrella 핵실험 데이터로 교차 검증되었으며, 한반도 연안 적용 시 위협이 증폭될 수 있음을 정량적으로 확인했다.

Abstract

This study analyzed the North Korean nuclear-powered UUV Haeil’s underwater explosion threat in the Korean shallow sea environment. The existing Baker-based deep-water model underestimates the threat by omitting the 'Shoaling Effect'. Therefore, an enhanced empirical equation incorporating ‘shallow depth (h)’ and ‘topography (Γ)’ variables was proposed. The model was cross-validated with Wahoo and Umbrella test data, quantitatively confirming threat amplification in Korean coastal environments.

Keywords:

Haeil, Underwater Nuclear Explosion, Shoaling Effect, Empirical Equation, Baker Test

키워드:

해일, 수중 핵폭발, 천해 효과, 경험식, Baker 실험

Acknowledgments

본 연구는 국군화생방방호사령부 예하 국군화생방방어연구소에서 수행된 연구 결과임.

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