러-우 전쟁에서 러시아의 핵 시그널링과 한반도 안보에 주는 시사점 연구

안성렬^*

해군대학 해양전략전력학처 북한해군전략교관

Russia’s Nuclear Signaling in the Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for Korean Peninsula Security

Seongyoel Ahn^*

Instructor of North Korean Naval Strategy, Dept. of Maritime Strategy Force Studies, ROK Naval War College

Correspondence to: *Seongyoel Ahn 271, Jaun-ro, Youseong-gu, Daejeon, Republic of Korea Tel: +82-42-878-2426 E-mail: aslj04@naver.com

초록

본 연구는 러우전쟁에서 나타난 러시아의 핵 시그널링을 분석하여 핵보유국과 핵미보유국 간 전쟁에서 핵무기가 실제 사용 이전 단계에서 어떻게 전략적으로 활용되는지를 규명하고, 한반도 안보에 대한 시사점을 도출하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 분석 결과, 러시아의 핵 시그널링은 전략환경과 상대방의 대응에 따라 목적과 수단을 지속적으로 조정한 동태적 전략적 커뮤니케이션으로, 미국·나토의 직접 군사개입은 선별적으로 억제하였으나 경제제재와 재래식 군사지원, 우크라이나의 군사작전은 통제하지 못하였다. 따라서 한국은 북한의 핵 위협을 연속적인 핵 시그널링의 과정으로 이해하고, 전략핵·전술핵의 이분법적 구분에서 벗어나 무기의 운용 목적에 주목하며, 재래식 대응능력과 한미동맹 기반 확장억제의 신뢰성을 지속적으로 강화할 필요가 있다.

Abstract

This study analyzed Russia's nuclear signaling in the Russo–Ukrainian War to examine how nuclear weapons are strategically employed before their actual use in wars between nuclear-armed and non-nuclear states and to draw implications for security on the Korean Peninsula. The analysis found that Russia's nuclear signaling was a dynamic strategic communication that continuously adjusted its objectives and means in response to the strategic environment and adversary's reactions. It selectively deterred direct U.S.-NATO military intervention but failed to curb economic sanctions, conventional military support, or Ukraine's own military operations. These findings suggest that South Korea should understand North Korea's nuclear threat as a continuous process of nuclear signaling rather than a series of discrete provocations, move beyond the binary distinction between strategic and tactical nuclear weapons to focus on how such weapons are actually employed, and continuously strengthen both its conventional response capabilities and the credibility of extended deterrence based on the Republic of Korea–U.S. alliance.

Keywords:

Nuclear Signaling, Russo-Ukrainian War, Nuclear Shadow, Korean Peninsula Security, North Korea’s Nuclear Threat

키워드:

핵 시그널링, 러우전쟁, 핵 그림자, 한반도 안보, 북핵위협

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