두 가지 정량적 전투모형에서 얻는 통찰: 란체스터 모형과 확률적 시나리오 모형

오경원¹ ; 민승식²^{, *}

1한남대학교 기계공학과 교수
2해군사관학교 이학처 교수

Insights from Two Quantitative Warfare Models:Lanchester and Probabilistic Scenario

Kyungwon Oh¹ ; Seungsik Min²^{, *}

1Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Hannam University
2Professor, Department of Natural Science, Republic of Korea Naval Academy

Correspondence to: *Seungsik Min E-mail: ssmin@navy.ac.kr

초록

본 연구에서는 전투 결과를 정량적으로 추론할 수 있는 두 가지 방법론을 분석한다. 첫째는 선형형, 제곱형, 혼합형의 세 유형으로 구분되는 란체스터 모형(LM)이며, 둘째는 확률적 시나리오 모형(PSM)이다. 두 모형의 이론을 비교하고 각 모형에 적합한 대표적 전투 유형을 제시하였다. 제안한 이론을 여러 예시 전투에 적용하여 결과를 분석하였다. 먼저 LM을 이용해 역사적 해전을 분석하고 유인함정과 무인수상정·무인항공기 간 미래 전투의 결과를 추정하였다. 이어 PSM과 확률이론을 적용하여 유인함정과 무인수상정 간 다양한 전투 시나리오의 결과를 추정하였다. 분석 결과, 두 정량적 전투모형은 전투 결과 추론뿐 아니라 미래 무기체계 개발에도 활용될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

Abstract

This study analyzed two quantitative methodologies for gaining insights into battle outcomes: the Lanchester model (LM), classified into linear, square, and mixed forms, and probabilistic scenario model (PSM). The models were compared and applied to historical warfare and prospective engagements between manned warships and unmanned surface or aerial vehicles. The results confirmed that LM and PSM can support both battle-outcome analysis and future weapon-system development.

Keywords:

Warfare Model, Lanchester Model, Probabilistic Scenario Model, Weapon System, USV, UAV

키워드:

전투모형, 란체스터 모형, 확률적 시나리오 모형, 무기체계, 무인수상정, 무인항공기

Acknowledgments

이 연구는 저자들의 발간 논문 [1]을 한역한 논문임.

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