국내 전략물자의 교역패턴 분석: GDP와 주요변수들 간 조절효과를 중심으로

정, 용기^*

충남대학교 평화안보대학원 방위사업학과 교수

Analysis of Trade Patterns of Strategic Materials in Korea

YongKi Jung^*

Professor, Department of Defense Acquisition Program, Graduate School of Peace & Security Studies, Chungnam National University

Correspondence to: ^*YongKi Jung 99 Daehak-ro(St), Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, 34134, Republic of Korea Tel: +82-42-821-8534 Fax: +82-42-821-8868 E-mail: bravejung@cnu.ac.kr

초록

최근 정부가 야심차게 추진하고 있는 방산수출 확대 정책은 단순한 무기 판매를 넘어, 국가간 안보협력 및 경제협력·산업경쟁력을 동시에 강화하는 핵심 국가전략산업으로 자리매김하고 있다. 특히 2022년 약 173억 달러 수주를 기록하며 세계 9위권 방산 수출국으로 도약한 이후, 정부는 세계 4~5위권 진입을 중장기 목표로 설정하고 방산을 국가 전략산업으로 육성하고 있다. 이러한 대내외적 상황하에서, 본 연구는 약 20년 동안의 국가간 교역자료를 활용하여 한국 전략물자의 교역패턴을 실증적으로 분석 시도하였다. 특히 군사동맹 및 방산·군수협정 체결 여부, 민주주의 수준, 외교정책 유사성, 국방과학기술 수준과 같은 비시장적 요인과 대상국의 경제규모 간 상호작용이 국가 간 전략물자 교역량에 미치는 영향을 중점적으로 검증하였고, 분석을 위해 확장된 중력모형을 적용한 회귀분석을 실시하였다.

Abstract

This paper empirically analyzes the trade patterns of Korean strategic materials over approximately two decades using bilateral trade data. Specifically, the analysis focuses on the role of non-market factors in shaping strategic-material trade flows. These factors include military alliances and the depth of defense cooperation agreements, the level of democracy, foreign policy alignment, and the technological capabilities of defense science and technology. In addition, the paper examines the interaction effects between these political-strategic variables and the economic size of partner countries in influencing bilateral trade volumes. An extended gravity model framework is employed to conduct this analysis. By incorporating both traditional economic determinants—such as GDP and geographic distance—and political-security variables, the model enables a more comprehensive understanding of the influence of strategic, institutional, and technological factors on trade in strategic materials. A regression analysis is performed to test the statistical significance and magnitude of these effects.

Keywords:

Defense Industry, Strategic Materials, Gravity Theory, Trade Pattern, Defense Export

키워드:

방위산업, 전략물자, 중력이론, 교역패턴, 방산수출

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